Roger Federer’s loss at the 2012 French open or at 2011 Wimbledon quarter-finals does not indicate his waning star. In fact, if anything, this loss can be attributed to the depth in men’s tennis, as can Federer’s recent Grand Slam “drought”. So, the question of whether or not Federer has handed over the baton or torch to the next generation is one that does not merit an answer until one can find a clear-cut successor with a track record of longevity and consistency, or until Federer can no longer make it to the business end of a Grand Slam — clearly not the case yet. Truth be told, the days of the “big three” or the “awesome foursome” are gone.
Younger, fresher perspectives and minds can wear down the best across any sport. Golf is undergoing a similar metamorphosis with McIlroy, Schwartzel, Donald, and Villegas leading the young brigade. Even in women’s tennis a traditionally predictable upper echelon has given way to new faces and young champions like Kvitova, Pironkova and Azarenka, or veteran but unexpected, Li Na and Schiavone.
Rafael Nadal (“Rafa”) is a great champion and a great sportsman, and if he can stay healthy while keeping the young guns at bay, he has every opportunity to attain a baker’s dozen of Grand Slams or more. But Rafa has a limited window of dominance, and as the gluten-free version 2.0 Novak Djokovic showed during his 43-match streak in 2011, Rafa is beatable, even on clay. But, this isn’t about Rafa, or any speculation on how long he will be competitive. This is purely about Federer and his so-called inevitable decline. The receding dominance of Federer is linked to his Grand Slam drought — his last victory was at the Australian Open 2010. Also, there are claims, somewhat valid, that he has lost his aura of being unbeatable. That the world’s number 3 player with one final, two semi-final, and three quarter-final showings in the last six Grand Slams is considered to be on the decline is premature at best, but in all fairness this is linked to his earlier supremacy. His lost aura however is a reality — his opponents do think he is beatable. But then, barring Rafa’s surreal dominance at Roland Garros, there are very few unbeatable players at any venue.
Federer’s loss record against Rafa, Andy Murray or even Djokovic is sometimes discussed as indicative of how he isn’t even the greatest player of our time, let alone of all time. Keep in mind, however, that Federer has played against the very best across generations, and by the time Rafa and friends emerged on the scene, he had already been dominating tennis for a significant time period. And, there is no player in today’s game that he has not beaten, or is unlikely to beat on any given Sunday.
Let’s look at Federer’s performances in Grand Slams in the last 18 months, especially his losses: to Rafa, Djokovic, Soderling, Berdych and Tsonga. Rafa and Djokovic have been playing at an outstanding level in the last 18 months, and Soderling, who beat Roger at the French Open in 2010, is also the only man to have beaten Rafa at Roland Garros. Federer’s 2010 blip was effectively erased this year when he ended Djokovic’s streak in the semi-finals, and then gave Rafa all that he could handle in the finals.
The loss to Berdych, a career under-performer, at Wimbledon in 2010 was worrying — the loss to Tsonga not so much. Already this year, Tsonga has beaten Rafa on grass at the Queens, and narrowly lost to Murray in the finals. He holds a career edge over Djokovic, has beaten Federer before, and handed Rafa his worst loss in a Grand Slam — a 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 demolition at the 2008 Australian Open. Against Federer, he took advantage of a flawless serving performance, and playing textbook grass court tennis. Nevertheless, Federer should have won the match, and Wimbledon 2011. His serene complacency may have been the cause of this early exit, and the pressure of once again being the favorite in a Grand Slam could have also led to undue pressure that he exerted on himself.
Federer is likely to win at least a few more Grand Slams, depending on timing and luck. Perhaps he will thrive more now in an underdog setting without a target on his back — as was the case at Roland Garros 2011. Federer plays the beautiful game, is a tennis connoisseur’s prototype, a brand ambassador for the sport, and is about to complete a decade at the pinnacle of men’s tennis. Appreciate that these are the last few years where Federer will grace the game with his elite and unique style and spirit, and treat the next Grand Slam victory, if and when it comes, as further indication that we are witnessing the greatest tennis champion the world has produced. One whose star is clearly not dimming in the near future.
